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The danger does not stem from a single confrontation, but from the cumulative pressure of several unresolved conflicts unfolding simultaneously. Each region has its own dynamics, history, and actors, yet all are shaped by a shared backdrop of weakened trust, shifting alliances, and growing uncertainty about long-term intentions.
In Europe, the war between Russia and Ukraine remains the central security challenge. More than two years after the invasion, the conflict has settled into a grinding phase marked by limited territorial changes, persistent drone and missile strikes, and high material costs on both sides. Periodic signals from Moscow suggesting openness to negotiations have so far failed to translate into concrete progress, leaving the conflict effectively frozen but far from resolved.
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