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In response, states along NATO’s eastern border—including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland—have begun reassessing long-standing defense assumptions. Some have withdrawn from older arms control or security agreements they now view as outdated under current conditions. Others are investing in physical and environmental defenses, such as reinforced border infrastructure and restored natural barriers, signaling a shift toward long-term preparedness rather than temporary crisis management.
Another factor adding complexity is Russia’s continued development of advanced weapons systems. Moscow has publicly highlighted tests of hypersonic missiles and nuclear-powered cruise missiles, framing them as evidence of technological superiority. Western analysts caution that while such systems could enhance Russia’s deterrence posture, much remains unknown about their true operational readiness. The greater concern lies not in their immediate use, but in how they might alter strategic calculations and increase pressure during future standoffs.
The Middle East presents a different but equally fragile picture. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has repeatedly threatened to widen beyond Gaza, drawing in regional actors and raising fears of a broader confrontation. Although ceasefires and negotiated pauses have temporarily reduced violence, the underlying political and security issues remain unresolved.
One of the most closely watched dynamics in the region is the relationship between Israel and Iran. Earlier exchanges of military strikes this year demonstrated how quickly tensions can escalate. While both sides ultimately stepped back from further retaliation, the episode highlighted the narrow margin separating deterrence from direct conflict.
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