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As uncertainty grows, people have begun asking more concrete, uncomfortable questions. Not just whether a global conflict could happen, but what it would look like if it did. That shift from abstract fear to specific scenarios is telling. It reflects a deeper loss of confidence in the systems meant to prevent escalation.
Into that discussion stepped nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein of the Stevens Institute of Technology. Speaking publicly in 2025, Wellerstein explained that in the event of a nuclear conflict, targets would be selected based on strategic goals rather than symbolism alone. The first strikes, he noted, would likely focus on disabling an opponent’s ability to respond.
That distinction pulls attention away from obvious megacities and places it squarely on smaller, lesser-known locations whose strategic value far outweighs their population.
One such city is Great Falls, home to just over 60,000 residents. Despite its modest size, Great Falls sits near Malmstrom Air Force Base, which controls hundreds of nuclear missile silos. In a nuclear scenario aimed at neutralizing U.S. strike capability, that proximity alone makes the area a high-value target.
A similar logic applies to Cheyenne, which lies close to Francis E. Warren Air Force Base, another critical hub in America’s nuclear missile command structure. Cheyenne rarely appears in discussions of global conflict, yet its strategic importance places it squarely on vulnerability lists.
In Utah, Ogden and Clearfield sit near Hill Air Force Base, a key installation for nuclear weapons storage and aircraft maintenance. Together, these communities have a relatively small combined population, but their location near critical military infrastructure makes them potential targets in a first-strike scenario.
Further south, Shreveport is located close to Barksdale Air Force Base, home to B-52 bombers capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Any strike aimed at disabling that base would almost certainly devastate the surrounding civilian area, regardless of whether it was the intended target.
On the Pacific front, Honolulu remains strategically vital due to its concentration of naval and air forces. The legacy of Pearl Harbor still looms large in military planning, and Hawaii’s geographic position makes it a critical node in U.S. defense strategy across the Pacific.
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