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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects the price tag could reach $600 billion annually — far exceeding what the government currently brings in from tariffs.
Even with stricter limits, the cost is still enormous. Erica York of the Tax Foundation noted that sending the payments only to households making under $100,000 would still total around $300 billion.
For now, the so-called “tariff dividends” remain a theoretical reward, funded by tariff income that has so far brought in about $195.9 billion total — a fraction of what would be needed to issue the payments nationwide.
Trump, however, remains confident. Speaking aboard Air Force One, he reiterated: “It will be next year… The tariffs allow us to give a dividend. We’re going to do a dividend, and we’re also going to be reducing debt.”
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